Next Nova Scotia general election

The 41st Nova Scotia general election will be held when the provincial government passes "an Order in Council calling an election"[1] to elect members to the Nova Scotia House of Assembly. Although the Nova Scotia Elections Act does not provide for fixed election dates, it is probable in 2021.

41st Nova Scotia general election

Date of election
to be determined

51 seats in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly
26 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Stephen McNeil Tim Houston
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative
Leader since April 28, 2007 October 27, 2018
Leader's seat Annapolis Pictou East
Last election 27 seats, 39.47% 17 seats, 35.73%
Current seats 27 17
Seats needed 9

 
Leader Gary Burrill
Party New Democratic
Leader since February 27, 2016
Leader's seat Halifax Chebucto
Last election 7 seats, 21.51%
Current seats 5
Seats needed 21

Incumbent Premier

Stephen McNeil
Liberal


No Assembly may continue for longer than five years and forty days after the issuing of writs for the previous election on April 30, 2017[2] or for longer than five years from the date fixed for the return of the writs for the previous election (normally 10 days following the election, which was on May 30, 2017).[3] Upon the expiration of the Assembly on June 9, 2022, the Lieutenant Governor is not required to immediately call an election, but Section 8 of the House of Assembly Act requires the House to sit at least once between January 1 and June 30 and at least once between September 1 and December 31,[4] unless there has been an election in the preceding six months.[5] The election must be held on a Tuesday at least 30 days and not more than 46 days after the date the writ of election is issued.[6]

Current standings

Party Party leader Seats
2017 Current
Liberal Stephen McNeil 27 27
Progressive Conservative Tim Houston 17 17
New Democratic Gary Burrill 7 5
  Independent 1
Vacant 1
Total 51 51

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MLAs have announced that they will not be running in the next provincial election:

Liberal Party

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2017–Present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Cumberland South January 24, 2018[8] Jamie Baillie  PC Resignation[a 1] June 19, 2018[9] Tory Rushton  PC
Sackville-Cobequid November 16, 2018[10] Dave Wilson  New Democratic Resignation June 18, 2019[11] Steve Craig  PC
Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River June 9, 2019[12] Lenore Zann  New Democratic Resigned from caucus[a 2]  Independent
Cape Breton-Richmond June 24, 2019[13] Alana Paon  PC Removed from caucus[a 3]  Independent
Argyle-Barrington July 31, 2019[14] Chris d'Entremont  PC Resignation[a 4] September 3, 2019[15] Colton LeBlanc  PC
Northside-Westmount July 31, 2019[14] Eddie Orrell  PC Resignation[a 5] September 3, 2019[15] Murray Ryan  PC
Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg July 31, 2019[14] Alfie MacLeod  PC Resignation[a 6] September 3, 2019[15] Brian Comer  PC
  1. amid an allegation of harassment
  2. in order to seek the federal Liberal nomination in Cumberland-Colchester
  3. amid a conflict over constituency office accessibility
  4. to run in the federal district of West Nova
  5. to run in the federal district of Sydney-Victoria
  6. to run in the federal district of Cape Breton-Canso

Opinion polls

Polling Firm Poll Published Link Liberal PC NDP Green
Narrative Research December 10, 2019 HTML 42 26 21 9
MQO Research August 31, 2019 PDF 35 35 20 8
Narrative Research July 31–August 22, 2019 PDF 39 28 16 15
Narrative Research June 13, 2019 HTML 31 33 21 13
MQO Research May 13, 2019 PDF 30 38 18 12
Corporate Research Associates March 6, 2019 PDF 37 34 24 5
MQO Research February 13, 2019 PDF 41 33 19 7
Mainstreet Research January 30, 2019 HTML 32.1 31 25.2 8.1
Corporate Research Associates December 12, 2018 PDF 38 31 24 6
Mainstreet Research November 16, 2018 HTML 32.7 33.2 20.7 8.9
MQO Research November 8, 2018 PDF 42 36 15 6
Tim Houston is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (October 27, 2018)
Corporate Research Associates September 6, 2018 PDF 43 32 21 4
MQO Research August 9, 2018 PDF 45 31 20 4
Mainstreet Research July 17, 2018 HTML 36.7 33.8 22.9 5
Corporate Research Associates June 6, 2018 PDF 45 29 23 3
MQO Research May 11, 2018 PDF 40 31 23 4
Mainstreet Research April 18, 2018 HTML 40.2 34.7 17.3 5.6
Corporate Research Associates March 8, 2018 PDF 37 34 25 4
Mainstreet Research January 25, 2018 HTML 40.6 38.5 15.7 5.2
MQO Research January 24, 2018 PDF 47 30 17 5
Corporate Research Associates December 6, 2017 PDF 38 29 27 5
MQO Research October 24, 2017 PDF 44 32 19 4
Corporate Research Associates September 13, 2017 PDF 45 29 22 4
MQO Research July 27, 2017 PDF 46 30 21 3
Corporate Research Associates June 7, 2017 PDF 40 29 28 2
Election 2017 May 30, 2017 HTML 39.5 35.7 21.5 2.8

References

  1. "Sample Election Calendar". Elections Nova Scotia. Retrieved June 4, 2017.
  2. House of Assembly Act, Section 8(1).
  3. Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, section 4(1)
  4. House of Assembly Act, Section 8(2).
  5. House of Assembly Act, Section 8(4).
  6. Elections Act, Section 29(b).
  7. Gorman, Michael (November 29, 2018). "Environment Minister Margaret Miller won't reoffer in next election". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
  8. "Nova Scotia PC Leader Jamie Baillie forced out over allegations of 'inappropriate behaviour'". CBC Nova Scotia. January 24, 2018. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
  9. Prentiss, Mairin (June 19, 2018). "Tories win in Jamie Baillie's former Cumberland South riding". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
  10. Laroche, Jean (November 16, 2018). "Dave Wilson steps down as MLA for Sackville-Cobequid". CBC News. Retrieved November 29, 2018.
  11. Laroche, Jean (June 19, 2019). "Tories take Sackville-Cobequid byelection in political landscape shakeup". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
  12. "Longtime NDP MLA Lenore Zann to run for federal Liberal nomination". CTV News. June 9, 2019. Retrieved 2019-06-09.
  13. Laroche, Jean; Gorman, Michael (June 24, 2019). "Parking lot fight 'final straw' as MLA Alana Paon kicked out of PC caucus". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved June 25, 2019.
  14. Laroche, Jean (July 19, 2019). "3 PC MLAs jumping to federal politics co-ordinate resignations". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved August 2, 2019.
  15. Michael, Gorman (September 3, 2019). "Progressive Conservatives make it 3-for-3 in byelections". CBC Nova Scotia. Retrieved September 4, 2019.
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