Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain and the first decentralized application running on Ethereum to make headlines. Augur is developed by Forecast Foundation, which was founded in 2014 by Jack Peterson and Joey Krug. Forecast Foundation is advised by Ron Bernstein, founder of now-defunct company Intrade, and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin.
|Developer(s)||Forecast Foundation OU|
|Type||Prediction Market Platform|
|License||Free software (GPL)|
Augur allows a user to create a prediction market. Augur resolves these prediction markets in two stages: a prediction market stage and an arbitration stage. In the market stage users are able to trade shares between each other, while in the arbitration stage, the markets outcome is decided. In the arbitration stage, fees are used to subsidize the arbitration process. Augur uses crypto tokens called Reputation (REP) to incentivize reporters on its network to back their reports with tokens. The reputation token holders are entitled to a percentage of the trading fees generated on the platform.
In July 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission noted resemblance of the augur contracts to binary options, which would fall under its jurisdiction. Augur's decentralised design may allow it to sidestep regulatory difficulties, because Augur is just a protocol that allows users to set up their own prediction market, which developer Joseph Krug says "shift(s) legal responsibility to bettors".
- "Ethereum-powered Augur brings its beta to Microsoft Azure's blockchain cloud". International Business Times. 2016-03-15. Retrieved 2019-11-28.
- Leising, Matthew (July 26, 2018). "As Crypto Meets Prediction Markets, Regulators Take Notice". Bloomberg.
- Shen, Lucinda (2018-07-09). "Ethereum-Based Blockchain Betting Platform Augur Just Launched. Here's Why It's Not Married to Ether". Fortune. Retrieved 2018-07-25.
- Freeman R, Lahaie S, Pennock D (2017). Crowdsourced Outcome Determination in Prediction Markets (pdf). Proceedings of the Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-17).
- "Blockchains could breathe new life into prediction markets". The Economist. 9 August 2018. Retrieved 2018-12-02.
- Orcutt, Mike (August 2, 2018). "This new blockchain-based betting platform could cause Napster-size legal headaches". MIT Technology Review.
- Orcutt, Mike (July 26, 2018). "The latest blockchain use case: anonymously betting on public-figure death pools". MIT Technology Review.
- Peterson J, Krug J, Zoltu M, Williams AK, Alexander S (2018). "Augur: a decentralized oracle and prediction market platform". arXiv:1501.01042 [cs.CR].
- Fröberg E, Ingre G, Knudsen S (2018), Blockchain and Prediction Markets: An Analysis of Three Organizations Implementing Prediction Markets Using Blockchain Technology, and the Future of Blockchain Prediction Market (pdf), KTH Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS)