42nd British Columbia general election

The 42nd British Columbia general election will be held on or before October 16, 2021, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly in the Canadian province of British Columbia.

42nd British Columbia general election

On or before October 16, 2021 (2021-10-16)

87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia
44 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader John Horgan Andrew Wilkinson Andrew Weaver[lower-alpha 1]
Party New Democratic Liberal Green
Leader since May 4, 2014 February 3, 2018 December 9, 2015
Leader's seat Langford-Juan de Fuca Vancouver-Quilchena Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Last election 41 seats, 40.28% 43 seats, 40.36% 3 seats, 16.84%
Current seats 41 41 3
Seats needed 3 3 41

Incumbent Premier

John Horgan
New Democratic


Elections BC administered a postal referendum from October to December 2018 on whether the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system should be maintained or if the province should switch to a proportional representation (PR) system. The referendum ended with a majority voting to maintain the existing FPTP system.[1]

Timing

Section 23 of British Columbia's Constitution Act provides that general elections occur on the third Saturday in October of the fourth calendar year after the last election.[2] The fixed election date was previously set for the second Tuesday in May, but the BC NDP passed legislation amending the section of the constitution pertaining to the set election day.[3] The same section, though, makes the fixed election date subject to the Lieutenant Governor's prerogative to dissolve the Legislative Assembly as he or she sees fit (in practice, on the advice of the Premier or following a vote of non-confidence).[2][4]

2018 electoral reform referendum

A referendum on electoral reform took place by postal ballot between October 22 and December 7, 2018, in British Columbia. In the referendum, electors were asked:[5]

  1. to choose whether to maintain the current first-past-the-post voting system or to switch to a proportional system;
  2. to rank three PR systems by preference, should the province switch to PR:

The referendum ended with a majority voting in favour of maintaining the existing first-past-the-post system.[1]

Opinion polls

The following is a list of scientific opinion polls of published voter intentions.

Fieldwork date Polling organisation / client Sample size Liberal NDP Green BC Con Others[lower-alpha 2] Lead
November 7–9, 2019 Insight West[6] 808 32% 35% 14% 17% 2% 3%
Jun 6–12, 2019 Insights West[7] 848 30% 35% 18% 14% 3% 5%
May 20–22, 2019 Research Co.[8] 800 30% 39% 21% 9% 1% 9%
April 8, 2019 Trevor Bolin elected leader of the BC Conservatives.
Mar 20–21, 2019 Mainstreet[9] 923 32.4% 39.0% 13.3% 12.1% 3.3% 6.6%
Feb 26 – Mar 13, 2019 Justason[10] 812 31% 30% 16% 19% 3% 1%
Jan 13–14, 2019 Mainstreet[11] 887 34.9% 37.0% 14.6% 11.2% 2.2% 2.1%
Nov 2–6, 2018 Insights West[12] 814 32.9% 38.2% 13.2% 11.8% 3.9% 5.3%
Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2018 Mainstreet[13] 616 33.9% 32.3% 18.2% 12.6% 3% 1.6%
Jul 15–17, 2018 Mainstreet[14] 933 33.9% 33.2% 16.0% 14.6% 2.3% 0.7%
Jul 12–15, 2018 Insights West[15] 1,053 32% 37% 17% 12% 2% 5%
May 4–7, 2018 Angus Reid[16] 809 36% 41% 17% n/a 6% 5%
Apr 16–18, 2018 Mainstreet[17] 900 36.8% 34.8% 15.7% 11.4% 1.4% 2.0%
Apr 12–15 2018 Mainstreet[18] 1,496 37% 31% 17% 13% 2% 6%
Mar 5–6, 2018 Mainstreet[19] 1,511 30.7% 36.0% 21.9% 8.9% 2.5% 5.3%
Feb 3, 2018 Andrew Wilkinson elected leader of the BC Liberals and becomes the leader of the Opposition.
Jan 15–17, 2018 Insights West[20] 829 31% 40% 19% 8% 2% 9%
Jan 3–4, 2018 Mainstreet[21] 817 33.9% 38.5% 27.6% n/a n/a 4.6%
Aug 14–15, 2017 Mainstreet[22] 2,050 38% 37% 16% n/a 9% 1%
Aug 4, 2017 Christy Clark resigns as leader of the BC Liberals and Rich Coleman chosen as interim leader
Jul 18, 2017 John Horgan becomes premier of British Columbia
Jun 29, 2017 Christy Clark resigns as premier; John Horgan invited to form government
Jun 29, 2017 BC Liberal government defeated in confidence vote
Jun 26–28, 2018 Ipsos[23] 800 44% 38% 14% n/a 4% 6%
Jun 23–28, 2017 Insights West[24] 821 36% 41% 19% n/a 4% 5%
Jun 26–27 2017 Mainstreet[25] 1,650 45% 34% 17% n/a 4% 11%
Jun 15–19, 2017 Angus Reid[26] 810 39% 38% 20% n/a 3% 1%
Jun 8–11, 2017 Ipsos[27] 802 40% 42% 15% n/a 2% 2%
May 11–13, 2017 Mainstreet[28] 1,650 38% 39% 22% n/a n/a 1%
May 9, 2017 General election results[29] n/a 40.4% 40.3% 16.8% 0.5% 2.5% 0.1%

Notes

  1. Announced his resignation on October 7, 2019; will continue to lead the party until a leadership election is held in 2021.
  2. Can include the British Columbia Conservative Party depending on the poll.

References

  1. "B.C. votes to keep first-past-the-post electoral system". CBC News. December 20, 2018. Retrieved December 21, 2018.
  2. Constitution Act, s. 23.
  3. Rob Shaw (October 4, 2017). "NDP changes B.C.'s fixed election date from May to October – Vancouver Sun". Vancouversun.com. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  4. Zussman, Richard (May 26, 2017). "Christy Clark gets 1st chance to govern, but how long can it last?". CBC News.
  5. "B.C. unveils its proposed question for voters in electoral-reform referendum". Retrieved June 25, 2018.
  6. "Government of British Columbia Report Card" (PDF). Insight West. November 25, 2019. Retrieved November 26, 2019.
  7. "2019 BC Government Report Card" (PDF). Insights West. July 11, 2019. Retrieved July 12, 2019.
  8. Canseco, Mario (May 29, 2019). "NDP Ahead in British Columbia Two Years After Last Election". Research Co.
  9. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on March 25, 2019. Retrieved March 25, 2019.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  10. "For B.C. voters it's still a tie » Justason Market Intelligence". Justasonmi.com. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  11. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on January 22, 2019. Retrieved January 21, 2019.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  12. "Survey on BC Referendum on Electoral Reform" (PDF). Insights West. November 9, 2018. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
  13. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on November 9, 2018. Retrieved November 9, 2018.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  14. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 30, 2018. Retrieved July 30, 2018.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  15. "Premier Horgan's Approval Rating Dips While Housing Affordability Continues to Weigh on British Columbians". Insights West. July 25, 2018. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  16. "One year later: British Columbians mixed on NDP's performance, but support its affordability policies" (PDF). Angusreid.org. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  17. "BC Liberals Take Lead From NDP; Horgan Government Hurt By Kinder Morgan Opposition". Mainstreetresearch.ca. April 26, 2018. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  18. "Federal and provincial governments get failing grades on protecting BC wild salmon". Mainstreetresearch.ca. April 25, 2018. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  19. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on March 22, 2018. Retrieved March 21, 2018.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  20. "Anxiety Over Housing, Homelessness and Poverty Rises in British Columbia". Insights West. January 19, 2018. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  21. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on January 23, 2018. Retrieved January 22, 2018.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  22. August 25, Scott Brown Updated; 2017 (August 25, 2017). "Poll suggests Mike de Jong is Liberals best choice for leader – Vancouver Sun". Vancouversun.com. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  23. "BC Liberals Go Out on Top". Ipsos.com. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  24. "Throne Speech Does Little to Sway British Columbians". Insights West. June 29, 2017. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  25. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 31, 2017. Retrieved June 29, 2017.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  26. "Snap Election? Snap out of it, say majority of British Columbians as legislative session looms" (PDF). Angusreid.org. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  27. "BC Is Still Too Close to Call". Ipsos.com. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  28. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 11, 2017. Retrieved June 29, 2017.CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  29. "Results of the 2017 General Election". Elections BC. Retrieved July 31, 2017.
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