2018 Ontario general election

The 2018 Ontario general election was held on June 7, 2018, to elect the 124 members of the 42nd Parliament of Ontario.[2] The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, led by Doug Ford, won a majority government with 76 of the 124 seats in the legislature. The Ontario New Democratic Party, led by Andrea Horwath, formed the Official Opposition. The Ontario Liberal Party, led by incumbent Premier Kathleen Wynne, lost official party status in recording both the worst result in the party's 161-year history and the worst result for any incumbent governing party in Ontario. The Green Party of Ontario won a seat for the first time in their history, while the Trillium Party of Ontario lost its single seat gained by a floor-crossing during the 41st Parliament. Twenty-four other parties and numerous independent candidates also received votes.

2018 Ontario general election

June 7, 2018 (2018-06-07)

124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout56.67% (5.38pp)[1]
  First party Second party
 
Leader Doug Ford Andrea Horwath
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 March 7, 2009
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Hamilton Centre
Last election 28 seats, 31.25% 21 seats, 23.75%
Seats before 27 18
Seats won 76 40
Seat change 49 22
Popular vote 2,326,632 1,929,649
Percentage 40.50% 33.59%
Swing 9.25pp 9.84pp

  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Kathleen Wynne Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since January 26, 2013 May 16, 2009
Leader's seat Don Valley West Guelph
Last election 58 seats, 38.65% 0 seats, 4.84%
Seats before 55 0
Seats won 7 1
Seat change 48 1
Popular vote 1,124,218 264,487
Percentage 19.57% 4.60%
Swing 19.08pp 0.24pp

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead by the result in each riding. Riding names are listed at the bottom.

Premier before election

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

Premier after election

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative

Background

Redistribution of seats

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015[3] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[4] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[5][6] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.[7]

The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. National Post columnist Josh Dehaas suggested that the small population sizes of the ridings might violate the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.[8]

In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election.[9]

Change of fixed election date

Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario's power to call an election earlier.[10] As the current government had a majority, the passage of a non-confidence motion was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.[11]

To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016 Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election",[2] and it came into effect in December 2016.[12]

Prelude to campaign

The Ontario Liberal Party attempted to win their fifth consecutive general election, dating back to 2003. The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario won their first election since 1999, and the Ontario New Democratic Party attempted to win their second election (having previously won in 1990). Numerous other extra-parliamentary political parties also vied for votes.

The Liberals under Kathleen Wynne headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford. The Liberals' standing with voters had been badly hurt when they partially privatized Hydro One in 2015, after campaigning against it in the 2014 election, as well as rising criticism over "ballooning provincial debt, high electricity prices and costly, politically expedient decisions".[13][14] In early April, the CBC published their analysis of aggregate polls showing that Ford and the Progressive Conservatives were ahead of the other parties averaging 42.1% support, compared to 27.2% for the governing Liberals, 23.4% for the NDP and 5.7% for the Greens[15] and with 11 Liberal MPPs announcing they would not be running for re-election or having already resigned their seats in the months leading up to the election.[16]

According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as prescription drugs and childcare, which the Liberal platform promised.[17]

In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous balanced budget with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025.[18] PC leader Doug Ford called the budget a "spending spree".[19]

Mood of the voters

According to Toronto Star columnist Susan Delacourt, voters were motivated by a desire for changesuch desire being more driven by emotion than by ideologyand one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for.[20] The Huffington Post reported that half of voters were basing their vote intentions on how best to block the party they oppose.[21]

In February 2018, Campaign Research conducted a gap analysis on voter intentions in Ontario, and determined the following:

Voter gap analysis by party (February 2018)[22]
LiberalPCNDPHighlights
64%
6%
6%
10%
13%
51%
7%
6%
10%
26%
61%
9%
13%
6%
11%
  • PCs had the lowest proportion of respondents (51%) not willing to vote for them at all, while the Liberals had the highest such proportion (64%)
  • At 13%, the Liberals' "hard support" was only half that for the PCs
  • For PCs, the strength of "hard support" increases with age, and older demographics tend to be more reliable voters
  • Conversely, such support for the Liberals and NDP significantly declines with age, with almost ¾ of those aged 55+ not willing to vote for them at all

     = Not voting for party; not considered
     = Not voting for party; shared consideration
     = Not voting for party; exclusive consideration
     = Will vote for party; others considered
     = Will vote for party; no others considered

Results

76 40 7 1
Progressive Conservative New Democratic Liberal Grn

Elections Ontario used electronic vote tabulator machines from Dominion Voting Systems for counting the ballots. Tabulators were deployed at 50 per cent of polling stations at a cost of CA$32,000,000.[23][24] This election was the first time Ontario used vote counting machines for a provincial election, although tabulators have been used in Ontario civic elections for more than 20 years, and also in a 2016 by-election in Whitby-Oshawa. The original paper ballots marked by voters will be kept for a year along with the digital scans of each ballot by the tabulator.[24]

Party Votes Seats
Progressive Conservative 2,326,632
40.50%
9.25pp
76 / 124(61%)
New Democratic 1,929,649
33.59%
9.84pp
40 / 124(32%)
Liberal 1,124,218
19.57%
19.08pp
7 / 124(6%)
Green 264,487
4.60%
0.24pp
1 / 124(0.8%)
Popular vote
PC
40.50%
New Democratic
33.59%
Liberal
19.57%
Green
4.60%
Others
1.74%
Seat summary
PC
61.29%
New Democratic
32.26%
Liberal
5.65%
Green
0.81%

Synopsis of results

Results by riding - 2018 Ontario general election[a 1]
Riding Winning party Turnout
[a 2]
Votes[a 3]
Party Votes Share Margin
#
Margin
%
PC NDP Lib Green Ind Other Total
 
Ajax PC 19,07839.1%3,9488.1%54.6%19,07815,13012,6071,22422060148,860
Algoma—Manitoulin NDP 17,10558.6%9,96234.1%53.1%7,14317,1052,3651,0251,57329,211
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC 25,21456.0%15,4964.4%55.4%25,2149,7188,1161,19575544,998
Barrie—Innisfil PC 22,12150.0%9,46021.4%54.3%22,12112,6615,5433,19075744,272
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PC 20,44544.7%7,55416.5%57.0%20,44512,8916,2105,35433545445,689
Bay of Quinte PC 24,22448.0%8,16116.2%56.5%24,22416,0637,5111,73037953550,442
Beaches—East York NDP 24,06448.2%10,58421.2%61.2%9,20224,06413,4802,12816187949,914
Brampton Centre NDP 12,89238.4%890.3%50.3%12,80312,8925,8251,0531,02533,598
Brampton East NDP 18,06246.9%5,16613.4%51.2%12,89618,0626,39852361638,495
Brampton North NDP 14,87737.5%4971.3%51.7%14,38014,8778,4101,36659139,624
Brampton South PC 15,65241.0%2,7337.2%51.6%15,65212,9197,2121,47291438,169
Brampton West PC 14,95139.4%4901.3%49.9%14,95114,4617,01399953737,961
Brantford—Brant PC 24,43739.4%6351.1%47.7%24,43723,8025,5532,7411,65558,188
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PC 26,87454.7%15,03730.6%57.2%26,87411,8376,0412,9271,44949,129
Burlington PC 25,50440.4%7,45111.8%58.4%25,50418,05315,5152,8281,15563,055
Cambridge PC 17,79337.0%2,1544.5%63.4%17,79315,63911,1913,01849048,131
Carleton PC 25,79851.3%14,49028.8%55.2%25,79811,3089,7681,985911,30850,258
Chatham-Kent—Leamington PC 24,07851.9%7,52016.2%62.0%24,07816,5583,7361,64335846,373
Davenport NDP 27,61360.3%19,05541.6%56.8%7,37027,6138,5581,6246958545,819
Don Valley East Lib 13,01235.9%1,0282.8%55.2%11,9849,93713,01291736736,217
Don Valley North PC 18,04644.4%5,48913.5%53.8%18,0468,47612,5571,03948940,607
Don Valley West Lib 17,80238.9%1810.4%61.3%17,6218,62017,8021,26846645,777
Dufferin—Caledon PC 29,70453.1%18,32332.7%56.6%29,70411,3816,9727,01188855,956
Durham PC 28,57547.0%9,32215.3%59.9%28,57519,25310,2372,36038260,807
Eglinton—Lawrence PC 19,99940.4%9571.9%60.1%19,9998,98519,0421,19031149,527
Elgin—Middlesex—London PC 29,26455.5%12,34123.4%59.4%29,26416,9233,8572,02969452,767
Essex NDP 26,13447.9%2,7115.0%56.1%23,42326,1343,0261,92054,503
Etobicoke Centre PC 24,43243.0%4,7248.3%61.9%24,43210,31119,7081,32916288356,825
Etobicoke—Lakeshore PC 22,62638.3%3,2255.5%58.6%22,62619,40114,3052,13852358,993
Etobicoke North PC 19,05552.5%9,84527.1%50.6%19,0559,2106,6011,02641436,306
Flamborough—Glanbrook PC 22,45443.5%4,8249.4%60.6%22,45417,6307,9672,3071,23051,588
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PC 19,95241.0%4,5439.3%55.4%19,95210,61015,4091,4271,29248,690
Guelph Grn 29,08245.0%14,99823.4%61.1%14,08413,9296,53729,08294564,577
Haldimand—Norfolk PC 26,88957.1%15,28030.2%59.2%26,88913,6094,6562,0951,34450,593
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PC 32,40656.7%17,26430.2%59.7%32,40615,1425,6552,5511,38957,143
Hamilton Centre NDP 23,86665.2%18,13649.6%48.9%5,73023,8663,9822,10215641936,575
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP 22,51851.1%9,83422.3%53.1%12,68422,5185,3201,8841,61444,020
Hamilton Mountain NDP 24,40654.6%11,51525.8%56.2%12,89124,4064,1342,30098644,717
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP 23,92143.2%6,73212.2%62.3%17,18923,92110,9602,30224777156,390
Hastings—Lennox and Addington PC 22,37450.2%7,93317.8%59.1%22,37414,4415,1801,92460244,521
Humber River—Black Creek NDP 11,57337.4%2,2067.1%47.3%9,36711,5738,64248586230,929
Huron—Bruce PC 27,64652.4%12,32023.3%63.5%27,64615,3267,3561,80467052,802
Kanata—Carleton PC 23,08943.2%7,49714.0%62.3%23,08915,5929,0902,8272,85553,453
Kenora—Rainy River PC 9,74848.6%2,25511.2%54.1%9,7487,4932,12370720,071
Kiiwetinoong NDP 3,23249.9%1,46722.7%45.8%1,7653,232983406916,477
King—Vaughan PC 29,13656.6%17,12433.3%55.5%29,1367,92112,0121,75463851,461
Kingston and the Islands NDP 21,78839.2%6,47611.6%57.3%14,51221,78815,3123,57445855,644
Kitchener Centre NDP 20,51243.4%7,43215.7%58.3%13,08020,5129,4993,23495547,280
Kitchener—Conestoga PC 17,00539.6%6861.6%59.9%17,00516,3196,0352,85376242,974
Kitchener South—Hespeler PC 16,51138.9%7701.8%55.8%16,51115,7416,3353,19827542342,483
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PC 27,90658.3%11,10822.0%60.8%27,90616,8003,1431,66091550,424
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PC 26,19452.0%10,85521.6%62.0%26,19415,3395,3592,41044060150,343
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes PC 30,00261.3%20,31441.5%60.2%30,0029,6886,5432,34738948,969
London—Fanshawe NDP 25,27255.7%11,75325.9%49.6%13,51925,2723,7972,05075345,391
London North Centre NDP 25,75747.6%9,05616.7%54.9%16,70125,7578,5012,49366154,113
London West NDP 32,64455.3%15,51126.3%60.6%17,13332,6445,8472,2111,16158,996
Markham—Stouffville PC 25,91248.1%11,90522.1%58.6%25,91210,99714,0072,15377753,846
Markham—Thornhill PC 18,94350.4%9,78326.0%52.2%18,9438,0109,16085957637,548
Markham—Unionville PC 29,30562.4%20,84944.4%54.7%29,3057,7768,45699640546,940
Milton PC 18,24941.7%5,18511.8%56.1%18,2499,74013,0642,20053643,789
Mississauga Centre PC 17,86040.9%5,81413.3%49.8%17,86012,04611,1021,1491,55343,710
Mississauga East—Cooksville PC 17,86241.1%4,73910.9%51.5%17,8629,87113,1231,4981,05143,405
Mississauga—Erin Mills PC 19,63141.6%6,61014.0%55.1%19,63113,02111,9651,2961,26547,178
Mississauga—Lakeshore PC 22,52042.3%3,88414.0%59.3%22,5209,73518,6361,57273653,199
Mississauga—Malton PC 14,71239.1%2,3616.3%48.4%14,71212,3517,8138741,18787437,611
Mississauga—Streetsville PC 20,87943.5%8,48617.7%55.5%20,87912,39312,3441,34999947,964
Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP 4,82751.8%2,03221.8%54.0%2,7954,8271,3321672039,324
Nepean PC 23,89945.1%8,78916.6%58.7%23,89915,11010,3832,73982652,957
Newmarket—Aurora PC 24,81347.7%12,40823.9%59.0%24,81312,40511,8401,85944764952,013
Niagara Centre NDP 21,61844.2%3,2856.7%56.1%18,33321,6185,7791,8032171,12448,874
Niagara Falls NDP 30,16150.8%9,03515.2%54.6%21,12630,1615,5542,05748359,381
Niagara West PC 24,39452.8%10,62523.0%63.3%24,39413,7694,8592,59057846,190
Nickel Belt NDP 23,15763.5%15,13941.5%55.4%8,01823,1573,1821,13797336,467
Nipissing PC 17,59849.9%4,60413.1%58.2%17,59812,9942,79499786035,243
Northumberland—Peterborough South PC 27,38645.3%12,58220.8%64.6%27,38614,80414,6032,74089060,423
Oakville PC 24,83743.7%4,5107.9%62.5%24,8379,42420,3271,98629756,871
Oakville North—Burlington PC 25,69146.4%12,19522.0%60.2%25,69113,49613,4872,05262555,351
Orléans Lib 24,97239.0%2,4633.8%62.8%22,50914,03324,9721,60343539863,950
Oshawa NDP 24,30144.9%1,7073.2%54.6%22,59424,3014,2781,9571,01354,143
Ottawa Centre NDP 29,67546.1%8,56413.3%61.2%10,32729,67521,1112,2661,02464,403
Ottawa South Lib 20,77339.6%5,45410.4%56.9%15,31914,25020,7731,61845652,416
Ottawa—Vanier Lib 20,55542.9%6,32313.2%51.5%10,25214,23220,5551,95596447,956
Ottawa West—Nepean PC 16,59032.8%1750.3%57.0%16,59016,41514,8101,93779350,545
Oxford PC 29,15255.7%13,23525.3%59.2%29,15215,9173,6202,2543351,03352,311
Parkdale—High Park NDP 32,40759.4%22,58641.4%62.4%9,82132,4079,2712,54450654,549
Parry Sound—Muskoka PC 22,66248.1%12,27726.0%59.2%22,66210,3854,0719,43821936847,143
Perth—Wellington PC 23,73650.7%9,35120.0%60.3%23,73614,3855,0622,74691446,843
Peterborough—Kawartha PC 22,90437.7%2,3863.9%62.7%22,90420,51814,9462,02439860,790
Pickering—Uxbridge PC 22,44742.2%5,41410.2%58.9%22,44717,03310,8512,10537338453,193
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PC 33,35069.2%25,28452.5%59.7%33,3508,0664,7011,43664648,199
Richmond Hill PC 22,22451.2%10,11623.3%52.2%22,2247,49012,1081,24830143,371
St. Catharines NDP 18,91136.6%1,5583.0%58.1%17,35318,91112,6711,92379251,650
Sarnia—Lambton PC 26,81152.7%7,81615.4%60.9%26,81118,9952,2461,8567185150,830
Sault Ste. Marie PC 13,49842.0%4141.3%54.5%13,49813,0843,1991,0441,29232,117
Scarborough—Agincourt PC 18,58250.4%8,15322.1%51.3%18,5826,43410,42963518960236,871
Scarborough Centre PC 18,26638.4%2,0195.1%53.2%18,26613,2478,7919191,48139,704
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib 11,97233.3%740.2%52.9%11,8989,91711,972878661,17435,905
Scarborough North PC 17,41351.0%9,09326.7%50.8%17,4138,3207,51954331834,113
Scarborough—Rouge Park PC 16,22438.6%9632.3%55.5%16,22415,2618,7851,01473142,015
Scarborough Southwest NDP 19,83545.7%6,27014.4%56.0%13,56519,8348,2281,17464143,443
Simcoe—Grey PC 34,09455.9%20,65033.9%57.1%34,09413,4448,7804,19245260,963
Simcoe North PC 25,23646.9%10,15818.9%58.9%25,23615,0789,5233,63232053,789
Spadina—Fort York NDP 24,67749.6%12,90726.0%53.4%10,83424,67711,7701,81563549,731
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PC 26,78061.5%17,36439.9%54.1%26,7809,4165,3861,59636043,538
Sudbury NDP 17,38648.1%8,98124.8%54.2%8,40517,3868,1081,5048268236,167
Thornhill PC 28,88961.1%19,75541.8%56.2%28,8899,1346,9851,0431,20847,259
Thunder Bay—Atikokan NDP 11,79336.3%810.3%54.7%7,55511,79311,71288058532,525
Thunder Bay—Superior North Lib 11,97339.9%8132.7%53.8%5,39511,16011,97383866930,035
Timiskaming—Cochrane NDP 16,80661.2%10,64638.8%53.1%6,16016,8062,4767231,29627,461
Timmins NDP 8,97857.4%4,34427.8%48.1%4,6348,9781,37827337015,833
Toronto Centre NDP 23,68853.7%11,70226.5%54.3%6,23423,68811,9861,37786344,148
Toronto—Danforth NDP 32,93864.2%24,80748.4%61.6%8,13132,9387,2162,24822850851,269
Toronto—St. Paul's NDP 18,84336.0%1,3452.6%60.7%13,78018,84317,4981,69059152,402
University—Rosedale NDP 24,53749.7%13,63927.6%56.6%10,43124,53710,8982,65222067449,412
Vaughan—Woodbridge PC 21,66750.5%7,94518.5%56.0%21,6676,25413,74297229142,948
Waterloo NDP 27,31550.5%10,34219.1%61.8%16,97327,3156,5772,61356654,044
Wellington—Halton Hills PC 31,65954.0%17,57230.0%61.1%31,65914,0877,4925,06632058,624
Whitby PC 26,47145.8%5,3139.2%60.3%26,47121,1587,4411,95876857,796
Willowdale PC 17,73243.6%6,91717.0%50.5%17,73210,48110,81593223345340,646
Windsor—Tecumseh NDP 25,22158.4%13,54431.4%47.8%11,67725,2213,5131,90986343,183
Windsor West NDP 20,27652.1%9,20323.7%43.3%11,07320,2765,7221,39343538,899
York Centre PC 18,43450.1%9,81726.7%52.9%18,4348,6177,8658431,00236,761
York—Simcoe PC 26,05057.3%15,39533.8%54.9%26,05010,6556,1822,19540945,491
York South—Weston NDP 13,45536.1%1,1653.1%49.2%12,29013,45510,37994622837,298
  1. "Summary of Valid Votes Cast for Each Candidate: 2018 General Election". elections.on.ca. Retrieved December 3, 2019.; "Statistical Summary by Electoral District: 2018 General Election". elections.on.ca. Retrieved December 3, 2019.
  2. including spoilt ballots
  3. minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately

Detailed analysis

 Elections to the 42nd Parliament of Ontario (2018)[25]
Political party Party leader MPPs Votes
Candidates 2014 Dissol. 2018 ± # % ± (pp)
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 124 28 27 76 49 2,326,523 40.19% 9.08
New Democratic Andrea Horwath 124 21 18 40 22 1,929,966 33.34% 9.68
Liberal Kathleen Wynne 124 58 55 7 48 1,124,346 19.42% 19.10
Green Mike Schreiner 124 1 1 264,519 4.57% 0.31
Libertarian Allen Small 117 42,822 0.74% 0.04
None of the Above Greg Vezina 42 16,146 0.28% 0.20
  Independents and no affiliation 32 2 2 8,226 0.14% 0.06
Trillium Bob Yaciuk 26 1 1 8,091 0.14% 0.13
Northern Ontario Trevor Holliday 10 5,912 0.10% 0.08
Consensus Ontario Brad Harness 10 2,682 0.05% New
Freedom Paul McKeever 14 2,565 0.04% 0.20
Ontario Party Jason Tysick 5 2,316 0.04% New
Ontario Moderate Party Yuri Duboisky 16 2,199 0.04% 0.03
Communist Dave McKee 12 1,471 0.03% 0.01
Canadians' Choice Party Bahman Yazdanfar 5 1,239 0.02% 0.01
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda Queenie Yu 3 1,078 0.02% New
Ontario Alliance Joshua E. Eriksen 3 802 0.01% New
New People's Choice Party Daryl Christoff 3 634 0.01% New
Special Needs Hilton Milan 5 631 0.01%
People's Political Party Kevin Clarke 6 628 0.01% 0.01
Confederation of Regions vacant 2 386 0.01%
Stop Climate Change Ken Ranney 2 340 0.01% New
Canadian Economic Party Patrick Knight 2 321 0.01% New
Go Vegan Paul Figueiras 2 256 0.02
Cultural Action Party Arthur Smitherman 3 215 New
Multicultural Party of Ontario Wasyl Luczkiw 2 191 New
Party of Objective Truth Derrick Matthews 2 176 New
Pauper John Turmel 2 112
Social Reform Party Abu Alam 2 67 New
  Vacant 4
Total 825 107 107 124 5,744,860 100.00%
Turnout 56.67% 5.38

Summary analysis

Party candidates in 2nd place[26]
Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
PCNDPLiberalGrn
Progressive Conservative 59 17 76
New Democratic 31 9 40
Liberal 5 2 7
Green 1 1
Total 37 61 26 124
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results[26]
PartiesSeats
 Progressive Conservative  New Democratic 90
 Progressive Conservative  Liberal 22
 Progressive Conservative  Green 1
 New Democratic  Liberal 11
Total 124
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party[26]
Parties1st2nd3rd4th5thTotal
 Progressive Conservative 763711124
 New Democratic 406123124
 Liberal 726883124
 Green 121174124
 Libertarian 17778
 None of the Above 2020
 Northern Ontario 21012
 Independent 11011
 Trillium 88
 Ontario Party 55

Regional analysis

Elections to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario – seats won by region (2018)
PartyToronto905 BeltHam/NiagaraCentralEastMidwestSouthwestNorthTotal
Progressive Conservative 11 21 6 10 11 9 4 4 76
New Democratic 11 4 7   2 2 6 8 40
Liberal 3       3     1 7
Green           1     1
Total 25 25 13 10 16 12 10 13 124

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

RidingPartyCandidatesVotesPlaced
Algoma—Manitoulin N.Ont. HeritageTommy Lee1,3664th
Kanata—Carleton TrilliumJack MacLaren1,9475th
Mississauga—Malton IndependentCaroline Roach1,1874th
Scarborough Centre LibertarianMatthew Dougherty1,0404th
Timiskaming—Cochrane N.Ont. HeritageShawn Poirier1,1054th

Events leading up to the election (2014–2018)

Date
June 12, 2014The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor.[27]
July 2, 2014Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.[28] Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader.[29]
July 24, 2014The Liberals pass their May 1 budget in its final reading.
May 9, 2015Patrick Brown, the Conservative federal MP for Barrie, is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.[30]
September 24, 2015Ontario Provincial Police lay charges in relation to the Sudbury by-election scandal.[31]
November 1, 2016Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection.[32] Sorbara announced that she will step down from the campaign.[33]
January 24, 2018CTV News reports that Progressive Conservative Party leader Patrick Brown is accused by two women of committing sexual misconduct. Brown denies the allegations.[34]
January 25, 2018Patrick Brown resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.[35][36]
January 26, 2018Progressive Conservative Party caucus chooses Nipissing MPP Vic Fedeli as interim leader.[37]
March 10, 2018Doug Ford is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives on the third ballot of the party's leadership election.[38] Fedeli continues as Leader of the Opposition for legislative purposes until the election due to Ford not having a seat in the Legislature.[39]
April 11, 2018First Leaders Debate hosted by the Jamaican Canadian Association. Andrea Horwath, Mike Schreiner, and Premier Kathleen Wynne were in attendance. Doug Ford chose not to attend.[40]
April 16, 2018The Ontario NDP release their full election platform.[41]
May 7, 2018First televised debate hosted by CityNews: Toronto-focused debate with Ford, Horwath and Wynne[42]
May 9, 2018Electoral Writ issued.[43]
May 11, 2018Leaders' debate in Parry Sound.[44]
May 17, 2018Candidate nominations close at 2 PM local time.[45]
May 26, 2018Advance voting starts at voting locations and returning offices.[46][47]
May 27, 2018Second televised debate, moderated by Steve Paikin and Farah Nasser, held at the Canadian Broadcasting Centre in Toronto and aired on CBC, CTV, Global, TVO, CPAC, CHCH and other outlets. Attended by Wynne, Ford, and Horwath.[48]
May 30, 2018Advance voting ends at advance voting locations.[46]
June 1, 2018Advance voting ends at returning offices.[46]
June 2, 2018Premier Wynne concedes that the Liberals will not win the election.[49][50]
June 6, 2018Special ballot voting at returning office or through home visit ends at 6:00 PM EST.[46]
June 7, 2018Election day. Fixed-date of the 2018 provincial election.

Campaign period

Issues

2018 Ontario election – issues and respective party platforms[51][52][53]
Issue Liberal PC NDP
Budget
  • Standing by its last budget's assertion of six consecutive deficits, with a return to balance in 2024–25
  • The Province will have a deficit in the government's first year. Based on Ford's campaign promises, economists estimate there will be five consecutive deficits between $8 billion and $6 billion.[54]
  • An audit will be conducted into the previous government's spending.
  • There will be five consecutive deficits of between $5 billion and $2 billion.
Taxation
  • Proceed with last budget's simplification of rate structure for personal income tax
  • Raise taxes on cigarettes by $4 per carton
  • Increase taxes on people making over $95,000 per year
  • Corporate income tax to be reduced from 11.5% to 10.5%
  • Eliminate income tax entirely for minimum-wage earners
  • Repeal the present cap and trade program
  • Oppose federally mandated carbon pricing
  • Reduce middle-class income tax rates by 20%
  • Reduce the small business income tax rate
  • Reduce gasoline taxes
  • Raise corporate tax rate from 11.5% to 13%
  • Ontarians earning more than $300,000 would see their tax rates rise by two percentage points, or one percentage point for those earning more than $220,000
Education
  • Modernize the curriculum and assessment of schools, from kindergarten to grade 12
  • $3 billion in capital grants over 10 years to post-secondary institutions
  • $16 billion in spending over 10 years on infrastructure and repairs at Ontario's schools
  • Cap kindergarten class sizes at 26 students
  • Abolish standardized EQAO testing
  • Give OSAP-qualified students non-repayable grants instead of loans
  • Remove interest from existing student loans and apply interest that has already been paid to the loan principal
Child care
  • Free child care for all Ontarians aged two-and-a-half to junior kindergarten age, regardless of income
  • A sliding scale of tax rebates, providing up to $6,750 per child under 15 and giving low-income families as much as 75 per cent of their child-care costs
  • Income-based scale for child care:
    • Free child care for families earning under $40,000 annually
    • Average of $12 per day cost for those making over $40,000
Transit and infrastructure
  • $79 billion for various public-transit projects over 14 years, including:
Hydro
  • Standing by its 2017 plan to defer rate increases through current borrowing
  • Will proceed to sell the Province's remaining 60% interest in Hydro One
  • Cut rates by 12%, over and above the Liberals' current 25% reduction
  • Fire the CEO of Hydro One
Environment
  • End cap-and-trade
  • Divert at least 25% of cap-and-trade revenue to help northern, rural and low-income Ontarians adapt to a lower-carbon lifestyle
  • Spend $50 million on a home-efficiency retrofit program
Healthcare
  • Create 30,000 new long-term care beds by 2028
  • Create a government-funded universal pharmacare program for seniors
  • Hire 400 new mental health workers in schools
  • Create 30,000 new long-term care beds by 2028
  • Increase funding for mental health
  • Increase funding for autism treatment by $125 million per year
  • Create a government-funded universal pharmacare program for many prescription medications
  • Create 40,000 new long-term care beds by 2028
  • Create 2,000 new hospital beds
  • Hire 4,500 new nurses
Regulation
  • Increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2019
  • End geographic price variations in car insurance rates
  • Keep the minimum wage at $14 per hour
  • Reduce the minimum price of beer from $1.25 to $1
  • Increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2019
  • Impose price controls on gasoline

Party slogans

PartyEnglishFrenchTranslation of French (unofficial)
 Liberal "Care over cuts"[56]
 PC "For the People"[57]
"Help is on the way."[58]
 New Democratic "Change for the better"[59] "Changeons pour le mieux"[60] Let's change for the better
 Green "People Powered Change"[61]
 Libertarian "The Party of Choice"[62]

Endorsements

Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal PC NDP Green No endorsement
Media
Politicians and public figures
Unions and business associations
  • Ontario Convenience Stores Association[87]
  • Ottawa Police Association[88]
  • United Steelworkers Local 2251[89]

Candidates

Candidate nominations

In February 2018, the PC leadership overturned the nomination of candidates Karma Macgregor in Ottawa West—Nepean and Thenusha Parani in Scarborough Centre because of irregularities and allegations of ballot stuffing at their nomination meetings.[94] Both candidates denied these claims.[95] The nomination meetings were reorganized, and both candidates lost the nomination at those meetings. However, the PC leadership decided not to overturn the nomination meeting's result in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, where a similar situation took place, because of an ongoing police investigation on this situation.[96]

In March 2018, the NDP nominated Lyra Evans as their candidate in Ottawa—Vanier. Evans was the first openly transgender candidate nominated by a major party to run in an Ontario general election.[97][98]

Incumbents not running for reelection

Electoral District Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MPP
Brant (now Brantford-Brant)   Dave Levac[99] Ruby Toor   Will Bouma
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell   Grant Crack[100] Pierre Leroux   Amanda Simard
Guelph   Liz Sandals[101] Sly Castaldi   Mike Schreiner
Kenora—Rainy River   Sarah Campbell[102] Glen Archer   Greg Rickford
Kitchener-Conestoga   Michael Harris[103]   Mike Harris Jr.
London North Centre   Deb Matthews[101] Kate Graham   Terence Kernaghan
Markham-Unionville   Michael Chan[100] Amanda Yeung Collucci   Billy Pang
Parkdale—High Park   Cheri DiNovo[104] Bhutila Karpoche   Bhutila Karpoche
Mississauga—Erindale   Harinder Takhar[105] Riding dissolved
Pickering-Scarborough East   Tracy MacCharles[100] Riding dissolved
Scarborough Centre   Brad Duguid[106] Mazhar Shafiq   Christina Mitas
Simcoe North   Patrick Brown[107]   Jill Dunlop
Welland (now Niagara Centre)   Cindy Forster[108][109] Jeff Burch   Jeff Burch
York Centre   Monte Kwinter[110] Ramon Estaris   Roman Baber
York—Simcoe   Julia Munro[111] Caroline Mulroney   Caroline Mulroney
York West (now Humber River—Black Creek)   Mario Sergio[112] Deanna Sgro   Tom Rakocevic

Opinion polls

Campaign period

*Includes support for the Green Party

Best Premier and Party Leader Approval Ratings

Date Firm Best Premier ratings Approval ratings
Ford Horwath Wynne
Ford Horwath Wynne Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
June 6, 2018 Research Co.   36% 55% 54% 34% 29% 64%
June 2, 2018 Forum Research 27% 31% 17% 27% 55% 41% 34% 23% 65%
June 2, 2018 Abacus Data   25% 48% 42% 20% 21% 56%
May 31, 2018 Research Co. 23% 28% 15% 33% 56% 52% 34% 27% 64%
May 29, 2018 Forum Research 29% 30% 16% 30% 53% 40% 32% 23% 65%
May 29, 2018 Angus Reid 25% 34% 15%  
May 29, 2018 Innovative Research 23% 30% 14% 30% 54% 48% 23% 25% 59%
May 26, 2018 Abacus Data   27% 45% 44% 15% 19% 60%
May 23, 2018 Forum Research 30% 33% 15% 32% 51% 43% 26% 19% 69%
May 23, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 19% 27% 57% 46% 20% 24% 61%
May 22, 2018 Leger 23% 28% 12%  
May 18, 2018 Abacus Data   26% 46% 42% 13% 17% 60%
May 12, 2018 Innovative Research 24% 26% 16% 31% 52% 44% 17% 21% 62%
May 9, 2018 Forum Research   34% 49% 42% 25% 20% 71%

Major Regional Polls – Toronto

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Lib PC NDP Gre Oth Margin
of error
Sample
size
Polling method Lead
Campaign ResearchMay 16, 2018HTML27353252±2.3 pp1,871Online3
Leaders' debate in Parry Sound (May 11, 2018)
Mainstreet ResearchMay 7, 2018PDF31.136.623.15.93.4±2.19 pp2,000IVR5.5
CityTV Toronto leaders' debate (May 7, 2018)[114]

Pre-campaign period

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